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December2015 SYDNEY URBAN LIVING INDEX Research by McCrindle TOP 10 RANKING SUBURBS 1. CROWS NEST WAVERTON 2. SURRY HILLS 3. PYRMONT ULTIMO 4. MARRICKVILLE 5. POTTS POINT WOOLLOOMOOLOO 6. NORTH SYDNEY LAVENDER BAY 7. RANDWICK 8. CHATSWOOD EAST ARTARMON 9. LEICHHARDT ANNANDALE 10. NEUTRAL BAY KIRRIBILLI Which of Sydneys 228 suburbs are best for Urban Living Sydney is shifting from suburban to urban Check out your suburb www.urbanlivingindex.com 2 The Urban Taskforce represents the developers financiers and associated disciplines that deliver the new built environment. We are at the front line of change but only deliver what the market wants. Over the last decade there has been a big swing in Sydney to more urban living generally in apartments. This trend is changing the very form and structure of Sydney as a city. The previous model for living in Sydney had been the detached house in a suburban setting but current development approvals are running at 70 for apartments and the balance of the city is changing. If the current trends continue Sydney will be half suburban dwellers in detached houses and half urban dwellers in apartments in a few decades. It is important that we understand just why this change is happening. It is partly that the size of the city is now at a point where horizontal spread is becoming less sustainable it is partly an affordability issue as land and house prices escalate but we believe there is also a cultural shift at play. Many younger people want to live in a bustling cosmopolitan environment and many older people are finding that on retirement the suburbs are just too quiet. In the context of the shift towards urban living the Urban Taskforce wanted to understand more about which parts of Sydney had become most urban and what were the ingredients that make a suburb rate highly as an urban living environment. We commissioned Mark McCrindle an expert in researching demographic data to develop an Urban Living Index to tell our members just where the best urban neighbourhoods were. Mark took the study further and surveyed 1000 Sydneysiders to find out their attitudes to increased density. Many younger people want to live in a bustling cosmopolitan environment many older people are finding that on retirement the suburbs are just too quiet. While the data in this report will help the suppliers of urban density in the form of apartments we see it having a much broader use. The soon to begin Greater Sydney Commission can use the index through the 6 planning districts they will administer and drill down to 228 suburbs. Councils will also find this data very useful. To fully explore the index we have developed a website at www.urbanlivingindex.com Sydney is shifting from being suburban to urban The Urban Taskforce is keen to have responses to the proposals illustrated in this issue of URBAN IDEAS and we welcome comments to adminurbantaskforce.com.au Chris Johnson AM Chief Executive Officer Urban Taskforce Australia Mark McCrindle Principal McCrindle Research SYDNEY A GLOBAL CITY As Sydney closes in on its next population milestone of 5 million it remains Australias leading city not only in size but in other measures as well. Yet more importantly it is a global city with a very strong international brand that stands in the top listings of many measures from liveability to business performance from diversity to climate and amenity. Sydney is also an innovative city continually adapting to the trends and shown through its rich cultural diversity strength in attracting investment and responsiveness to the ever-changing generations. The challenge for Sydneys future is to ensure that it responds to population growth yet maintains its world-beating lifestyle and that its liveability rises to match its increasing density. This is the purpose of this Urban Living Index. We have designed it to track the five key categories that produce a measure of liveability in a city that is moving from suburban spread to urban growth. While a city can always improve these results show that the city planning and unit development are creating thriving urban communities as evidenced by the results that show superior liveability in high density Sydney suburbs. There remain some infrastructure shortfalls and affordability challenges however this inaugural Urban Living Index shows that the vertical communities of the 21st century are meeting the lifestyle needs of Sydneysiders just as those achieved by the horizontal suburbs of the 20th century. 3 MEASURE DESCRIPTION OF MEASURE Home cost Weekly mortgage repayments are an indicator of the affordability of an area. Rental cost Weekly rental costs are an indicator of how much it costs to rent in an area. Rental population A high proportion of renters in an area correlates with low affordability. Household income Lowaveragehouseholdincomeofanareaisanindicationoftheaffordabilityinthatarea. Dynamic community Increased cultural diversity in communities creates a rich and vibrant community life. Language diversity Language diversity similarly to cultural diversity creates vibrancy and energy in a community. Volunteer work Involvement in volunteer work is a measure of active community participation. Workforce participation Engaging in the workforce is a measure of social participation and contribution to the Australian community. Full-time employment The proportion of the population with an area that are employed on a full-time basis is an indication of the employment opportunities provided in close proximity to an area. Higher education qualification People who have a Bachelor degree or higher qualification have higher employability prospects. Professionals The economic vibrancy of an area is enhanced by a well-educated broadly skilled and business-generating workforce. Employing business The total employing businesses in an area directly correlate to the employment opportunities of an area. Educational attendance The proportion of individuals in attendance at post-school educational institutions indicates high levels of drive and determination as well as the proximity of higher education institutions to an area. Arts and recreation Arts and recreation businesses foster community engagement. Restaurants and cafs Restaurants and cafes are hubs for community activity and social interaction therefore fostering vibrant communities. Shopping The ability to shop locally creates greater social cohesion with more opportunities and time for local community connection. Access to work Catching public transport to work is indicative of the accessibility of an area by means other than car. Population density Higher density areas have greater overall accessibility. Walking to work The proportion of a population who walk to work is an indication of the accessibility their area provides to local employment. Transport sustainability Households who can get by without a car have greater accessibility overall not only to their workplace but also to other amenities close-by. Explaining how the data is assembled for the index The McCrindle developed Urban Living Index is an ongoing measure of the liveability of suburbs in Sydney. This instrument considers the affordability community employability amenity and accessibility of an area to determine how liveable it is. Each of these categories has four measurements. SA2s Statistical Area Level 2 are given a score out of 5 based on all twenty category measures. The twenty inputs are all based on the ABS Census 2011 and ABS Counts of Australian Businesses data. Sydney SUA Significant Urban Area is used as the benchmark from which comparison quintiles are derived. For example the average rental cost in each suburb is compared to the 5 rental quintiles within Sydney SUA and given a score based on these quintiles. If the proportion of professionals in an area is high and falls into the highest quintile of the proportion of workforce who are professionals in Sydney SUA this suburb SA2 is given a score of 5 for that given category. Throughout the report SA2s will be referred to as suburbs. The suburbs in Sydney are scored out of 100 each suburb given a maximum score of 5 for each of the twenty measurements. Each measure is a factor that contributes to the liveability of an urban environment. The chart on the left outlines the categories and their measurements. www.urbanlivingindex.com 5 CATEGORIES 20 POINTS EACH 4 MEASURES PER CATEGORY 5 POINTS PER MEASURE ALGORITHM 5 CATEGORIES x 4 MEASURES x 5 POINTS 100 AFFORDABILITYCOMMUNITYEMPLOYABILITYAMENITYACCESSIBILITY 4 Urban Living Index Results CENTRAL ULI RANK 1. Surry Hills 1 2. Marrickville 3 3. Pyrmont Ultimo 3 4. Leichhardt Annandale 5 5. Randwick 5 NORTH ULI RANK 1. Crows Nest Waverton 1 2. North Sydney Lavender Bay 5 3. Chatswood East Artarmon 5 4. Hornsby Waitara 10 5. Neutral Bay Kirribilli 10 SOUTH ULI RANK 1. Hurstville 31 2. South Hurstville Blakehurst 42 3. Canterbury South Campsie 53 4. Mortdale Penshurst 53 5. Rockdale Banksia 53 WEST CENTRAL ULI RANK 1. Parramatta Rosehill 13 2. North Parramatta 38 3. Castle Hill 38 4. Giraween Westmead 57 5. Auburn 62 WEST ULI RANK 1. Springwood Winmalee 108 2. Blaxland Warrimoo Lapstone 108 3.DuralKenthurstWisemans Ferry 118 4. Katoomba Leura 140 5. Kurrajong Heights Ebenezer 140 SOUTH WEST ULI RANK 1. Liverpool Warwick Farm 74 2. Cabramatta Lansvale 85 3. Campbelltown Woodbine 108 4. Fairfield 118 5. Ingleburn Denham Court 130 TOP 5 IN EACH DISTRICT 5 www.urbanlivingindex.com Numbers indicate the Urban Living Index score for each area out of 100 WEST 49 WEST CENTRAL 49 SOUTH WEST 48 NORTH 65 CENTRAL 73 SOUTH 60 Average index for each of Sydneys districts 6 Which suburbs have the highest density 1 Sydney Haymarket The Rocks 2 Potts Point Woolloomooloo 3 Pyrmont Ultimo 4 Parramatta Rosehill 5 North Sydney Lavender Bay 6 Darlinghurst 7 Neutral Bay Kirribilly 8 Waterloo Beaconsfield 9 Double Bay Bellevue Hill 10 Homebush Unlikely 0 10 Extremely Likely TOP 10 SUBURBS LIKELIHOOD TO RECOMMEND HIGH DENSITY LIVING 0 2 2 1 2 4 20 20 11 5 10 15 20 25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 18 10 10 7 Numbers indicate the percentage of apartments of all dwellings www.urbanlivingindex.com 8 How likely are you to recommend your area to other people as a place to live Sydneysiders living in the North and Central districts are the most likely to recommend their area as a place to live to other people. 4 in 5 80 North district residents would be extremely or very likely to recommend their area to others and 73 of Central residents would do the same. WEST WEST CENTRAL NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH SOUTH WEST Extremelyvery likely710 67 68 80 73 63 70 0 5 10 15 20 25 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 9 Affordability The map above shows how the Sydney suburbs score in affordability. The darker the area the more affordable the suburb is. Score is out of 20. The affordability of an area is determined by average rental and mortgage repayment costs. When dwellings are unaffordable this often results in a high proportion of individuals renting in an area. Household income also corresponds with how affordable an area is and influences residents ability to afford rent or mortgage payments. Those with higher incomes are more likely to live in suburbs were housing prices are higher. TOP 10 SUBURBSHome cost Weekly mortgage repayments are an indicator of the affordability of an area. Rental cost Weekly rental costs are an indicator of how much it costs to rent in an area. Rental population A high proportion of renters in an area correlates with low affordability. Household income Low average household income of an area is an indication of the affordability of living in that area. 1 Kurrajong Heights Ebenezer 2 Blaxland Warrimoo Lapstone 3 Springwood Winmalee 4 St Clair 5 Claymore Eagle Vale Raby 6 Bonnyrigg Heights Bonnyrigg 7 Lawson Hazelbrook Linden 8 Cambridge Park 9 Castlereagh Cranebrook 10 Erskine Park 10 Community The map above shows how the suburbs of Sydney scored in community the darker the area the higher the score. Score is out of 20. TOP 10 SUBURBS Dynamic community Increased cultural diversity in communities creates a rich vibrant community life. Language diversity Languagediversitysimilarlytoculturaldiversitycreatesvibrancyenergyinacommunity. Volunteer work Involvement in volunteer work is a measure of active community participation. Workforce participation Engaging in the workforce is a measure of social participation and contribution to the Australian community. Quality of living is influenced significantly by the social interaction and welcoming environment of a community. High levels of diversity in both culture and language promote a rich and vibrant community. Further to this community is influenced directly by social interaction with individuals who undertake volunteer work andor employment more socially connected to their community. This category takes into account each of these factors in assessing the community of areas across Sydney. 1 Redfern Chippendale 2 Pyrmont Ultimo 3 Darlinghurst 4 North Sydney Lavender Bay 5 Crows Nest Waverton 6 West Ryde Meadowbank 7 St Leonards Naremburn 8 Carlingford 9 Potts Point Woolloomooloo 10 Randwick 11 Employability The map above shows how the suburbs of Sydney scored in employability the darker the area the higher the score. Score is out of 20. TOP 10 SUBURBSFull-time employment The proportion of the population with an area that are employed on a full-time basis is an indication of the employment opportunities provided in close proximity to an area. Higher education qualification People with a Bachelor degreehigher qualification have higher employability prospects. Professionals Economicvibrancyisenhancedbyawell-educatedskilledbusiness-generatingworkforce. Employing business Totalemployingbusinessesdirectlycorrelatetotheemploymentopportunitiesinanarea. Employment opportunities are one of the most influential factors people consider when choosing where to live. When thinking about the employability of an area there are a number of measures to consider. Higher education qualifications increase job prospects professionals are seen to be highly employable due to the adaptability of their skillset. A high proportion of people in an area employed full-time is indicative of the range of employment opportunities within close proximity of the area the number of employing business in the area directly influences the employability of an area. 1 St Leonards Naremburn 2 Erskineville Alexandria 3 Randwick 4 Surry Hills 5 Pyrmont Ultimo 6 Leichhardt Annandale 7 North Sydney Lavender Bay 8 Neutral Bay Kirribilli 9 Crows Nest Waverton 10 Manly Fairlight 12 Amenity The map above shows how the suburbs of Sydney scored in amenity the darker the area the higher the score. Score is out of 20. TOP 10 SUBURBS Educational attendance The proportion of individuals in attendance at post-school educational institutions indicates high levels of drive and determination as well as the proximity of higher education institutions to an area. Arts and recreation Arts and recreation businesses foster community engagement. Restaurants and cafs Restaurants and cafs are hubs for community activity social interaction therefore fostering vibrant communities. Shopping The ability to shop locally creates greater social cohesion with more opportunities and time for local community connection. High liveability of an area assumes that occupants do not have to travel far to access day to day amenities. Higher education attendance is indicative of the proximity of tertiary institutionssuchasTAFEsuniversitiestoanarea.Theprevalenceofretailartsrecreation restaurant and caf businesses in the local area are a strong measure of amenity presence. 1 Surry Hills 2 Pyrmont Ultimo 3 Chatswood East Artarmon 4 Maroubra 5 Marrickville 6 Sydney Haymarket The Rocks 7 Waterloo Beaconsfield 8 Leichhardt Annandale 9 Crows Nest Waverton 10 Castle Hill 13 Accessibility The map above shows how the suburbs of Sydney scored in accessibility the darker the area the higher the score. Score is out of 20. The accessibility of an area is dependent on public transport availability. Public transport and close proximity to work and other amenities influences the proportion of residents who have the ability to live without a care and access their work by walking or public transport. TOP 10 SUBURBSAccess to work Catching public transport to work is indicative of the accessibility of an area by means other than car. Population density Higher density areas have greater overall accessibility. Walking to work The proportion of a population who walk to work is an indication of the accessibility their area provides to local employment. Transport sustainability Households who can get by without a car have greater accessibility overall not only to their workplace but also to other amenities close-by. 1 Burwood Croydon 2 NewtownCamperdownDarlington 3 Potts Point Woolloomooloo 4 Randwick 5 Bondi Beach North Bondi 6 Bondi Junction Waverly 7 Coogee Clovelly 8 Kensington Kingsford 9 Redfern Chippendale 10 Surry Hills 14 Measuring the attitudes of 1000 Sydneysiders to their neighbourhood McCrindle surveyed 1000 people across Sydney from 29 September to 4 October 2015 to understand attitudes toward the areas in which they live and to the density of housing. The survey aligned to the percentage of people in Sydney who lived in low density housing 56 Medium Density 16 and High Density 28. Here are a sample of the results of the survey with much more detail available online at www.urbanlivingindex.com Almost 9 in 10 88 Sydneysiders think Sydneys housing affordability is a massive or significant challenge for their children and the next generations. Sydneysiders are generally optimistic about their community with 2 in 3 68 believing that the cohesion and harmony of their area will either increase or remain unchanged in three years time. If you were starting over and had to buy into your area in the current property market to what extent could you afford to AFFORDABILITY QUESTIONS COMMUNITY QUESTIONS Compared to today do you believe the cohesion and harmony of your community will increase or decrease in three years time More than 3 in 5 61 Sydneysiders would be unable to buy into their area in the current property market. COULD DEFINITELY AFFORD TO BUY INTO MY AREA SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE MASSIVE CHALLENGE COULD PROBABLY AFFORD TO BUY INTO MY AREA SLIGHTLY INCREASE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE COULD POSSIBLY AFFORD TO BUY INTO MY AREA WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED SOMEWHAT CHALLENGE PROBABLY UNABLE TO BUY INTO MY AREA SLIGHTLY DECREASE SLIGHT CHALLENGE DEFINITELY UNABLE TO BUY INTO MY AREA SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE NO CHALLENGE AT ALL To what extent do you think Sydneys housing affordability is a challenge for your children and the next generation 0 0 0 5 10 10 10 20 20 15 30 30 20 40 40 25 50 50 30 60 60 35 70 40 8 59 3 12 53 23 9 13 29 19 7 24 3 37 2 15 ACCESSIBILITY QUESTIONS Compared to today do you believe the accessibility of your community will increase or decrease in three years time www.urbanlivingindex.com 1 in 4 26 Sydneysiders believe that the employment opportunities in their community will increase in three years time. A further 46 believe these will remain unchanged. 32 of Sydneysiders have the expectation that the amenities in the area in which they live will have increased in three years time. Half of Sydneysiders 52 really like or totally love the local assets in their area. Almost 2 in 5 Sydneysiders 37 believe that the accessibility of their area will increase in three years time. Nearly half indicate that things will remain unchanged 49. EMPLOYABILITY QUESTIONS Compared to today do you believe the employment opportunities in your community will increase or decrease in three years time AMENITY QUESTIONS Compared to today do you believe the amenities in your community will increase or decrease in three years time How much do you like the local assets in your community such as shops and cafs SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TOTALLY LOVE SLIGHTLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASE REALLY LIKE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED SOMEWHAT LIKE SLIGHTLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY LIKE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE INDIFFERENT 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20155 30 30 30 25 40 40 40 30 50 60 60 40 50 50 35 4 22 46 5 27 52 12 16 36 32 9 6 8 29 49 10 4 4 21 7 16 GPO Box 5396 Sydney NSW 2001 Level 12 32 Martin Place Sydney NSW Level 6 London Circuit Canberra ACT T 02 9238 3955 F 02 9222 9122 E adminurbantaskforce.com.au W www.urbantaskforce.com.au URBAN LIVING INDEX 2015 We would like to thank McCrindle for their efforts and research for this Urban Ideas. If you would like more information about this publication you can visit the Urban Living Index website on www.urbanlivingindex.com For further information on McCrindle T 61 2 8824 3422 E infomccrindle.com.au W mccrindle.com.au RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY MERITON